Uncertainty Control Strategies in Solving of Prognostic Tasks

The aim of the article was to study the role of personality and intelligence in prognostic tasks solving. The presented results were obtained in a sample of 78 participants. Seven methods were used: a computerized version of the prognostic task (based on V.N. Azarov`s task [1982]; an intelligence test and five psychodiagnostic questionnaires to assess personality traits and style characteristics. In the prognostic task, three measurable indicators of the possible strategy were considered: the ratio of available and missing information (awareness), the reasonableness of the possible choice by the available amount of the information (justifiability) and the change in the prognosis reasonableness due to the latest obtained information (trend). The correlations between intelligence measurement and preferred levels of awareness (r = 0.261, p <0.05) and validity (r = 0.244, p <0.05) were established. Two strategies of uncertainty control, differing by the use of the above-mentioned indicators were identified and described with the awareness-only oriented strategy seeming more successful. There were differences in the intolerance of uncertainty levels (measured by the New Questionnaire of Tolerance/Intolerance for Uncertainty by T.V. Kornilova [11]) in the individuals who preferred different strategies of uncertainty control (U = 558, p = 0.047). The participants who tried to use all the three indicators in solving the prognostic task were more uncertainty intolerant than the awareness-only oriented group.

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