Impact of the Crisis Caused by the Spread of Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) on the Civil Aviation of the Russian Federation



The authors analyzed the impact of the crisis caused by the spread of coronavirus infection (COVID-19) on the civil aviation of the Russian Federation, by analyzing the volume of civil air transportation in the period 2015–2020 using the example of the 5 largest Russian airlines, whose share is about 70 %, as well as analysis of the financial indicators of the above companies at the end of 2020. Thus, the object of the study was civil aviation. The aim of the study was to develop a set of measures necessary to support civil aviation in overcoming the consequences of the crisis. The work is built on a consistent research path using the following scientific forms: abstract-logical, mathematical, analytical, statistical. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the volume of civil traffic of the five largest Russian airlines, it was found that the volume of passenger traffic on average in 2020 compared to 2019 decreased by 35 %, the percentage of occupancy of passenger seats on average in 2020 compared to 2019 decreased by 10.84 %. This reduction in demand for flights has led to a significant deterioration in the financial position of the companies. Within the framework of the article based on The 5-factor Altman model analyzes the assessment of the possibility of bankruptcy of the above companies. Based on the results of this analysis, it was found that most air carriers are in the “red zone”, therefore, the possibility of bankruptcy is 80–100 %. The results of this article were a list of the proposed by the authors, including taking into account the analysis of foreign experience, measures necessary to support civil aviation.

General Information

Keywords: crisis, coronavirus infection, civil aviation, air carrier, passenger traffic, bankruptcy assessment, 5-factor Altman model

Journal rubric: Data Analysis


For citation: Naumov A.V., Naumova A.A. Impact of the Crisis Caused by the Spread of Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) on the Civil Aviation of the Russian Federation. Modelirovanie i analiz dannikh = Modelling and Data Analysis, 2021. Vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 5–18. DOI: 10.17759/mda.2021110301. (In Russ., аbstr. in Engl.)


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Information About the Authors

Andrey V. Naumov, Doctor of Physics and Matematics, Professor, Chair of Probability Theory and Computer Modeling, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia, ORCID:, e-mail:

Anastasiya A. Naumova, Master’s degree of the Department of Finance and Prices, Faculty of Finance, Russian Economic University named after G.V. Plekhanov, Moscow, Russia



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