Methodology for The Development of the System Model of Prognosis for Cardiovascular Diseases



The article presents the necessity and timeliness of development of the system prognostic model, which in its unity will display the three main terms of therapeutic dynamics in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) — medical, psychological and social. The main attention is paid to the prognostic factors of the effectiveness of rehabilitation of patients with coronary heart disease during rehabilitation and in long-term periods after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), as well as to psychosocial assessment in the period of preparation for heart transplantation in the terminal stage of chronic heart failure. Based on the analysis of modern literature, the need for a comprehensive study of the psychological factors of prognosis is shown; among them a special position is held by the dynamics of patients’ cognitive functioning, closely related to the hemodynamics of the brain in CVD, as well as patients’ adherence to treatment during rehabilitation after CABG and during preparation for heart transplantation. The program of empirical research is presented, including the study of the relationship between patients’ biological, clinical, psychological and social characteristics and the CVD prognosis. The results of the first stage of the study of 111 CHD patients, aimed at identifying the most informative psychological factors in terms of labor prognosis after cardiac operations, are also presented in the article proving the special socio-economic importance of the problem of patients’ nonreturn to work after successful myocardial revascularization. It is planned to carry out a metaanalysis of prognostic studies presented in the scientific literature, and to design a systematic (biopsychosocial) prediction model for CVD upon completion of a study of 400 CVD patients using mathematical modeling methods. The next step in studying the factors of the prognosis will be an empirical verification of the developed model which will allow substantiating the main ways of psychological intervention in life-threatening heart diseases with the aim of increasing the effectiveness of treatment and optimizing the quality of patients’ life.

General Information

Keywords: system concept, biopsychosocial prediction model, cardiovascular diseases, rehabilitation, cognitive dynamics, adherence to treatment, (compliance), social and labor recovery, psychosocial assessment in transplantation

Journal rubric: Theory and Methodology of Psychology

Article type: scientific article

For citation: Shchelkova O.Y., Eremina D.A., Iakovleva M.V., Shindrikov R.Y., Kruglova N.E. Methodology for The Development of the System Model of Prognosis for Cardiovascular Diseases. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Psychology, 2018. Vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 271–292. (In Russ., аbstr. in Engl.)


Lomov B.F. Sistemnost’ v psikhologii: Izbrannye psikhologicheskie trudy [Systematic in Psychology: Selected Psychological Works]. Moscow, Publishing House of Moscow Psychol. Institute, 2003. 424 p. (In Russian)

Information About the Authors

Olga Y. Shchelkova, Doctor of Psychology, Head of the Chair of Clinical Psychology & Psychophysiology, St. Petersburg State University, St.Petersburg, Russia, ORCID:, e-mail:

Daria A. Eremina, PhD in Psychology, Senior Lecturer, Department of Medical Psychology and Psychophysiology, St. Petersburg State University, St.Petersburg, Russia, ORCID:, e-mail:

Maria V. Iakovleva, PhD in Psychology, Associate Professor of the Department of Medical Psychology and Psychophysiology, Saint-Petersburg State University, St.Petersburg, Russia, ORCID:, e-mail:

Roman Y. Shindrikov, Assistant, Department of General and Clinical Psychology, Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University, St.Petersburg, Russia, ORCID:, e-mail:

Nadezhda E. Kruglova, PhD in Psychology, Associate Professor, Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia, St.Petersburg, Russia, e-mail:



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