Bioinspired Scenario Analysis of the Connection between the COVID-19 Epidemic and Distance Learning Technologies

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Abstract

The structural scheme is developed and the description of the bioengineered quasimolecular algorithm of scenario analysis of dynamics of variation series is presented. On the basis of this algorithm a complex of pessimistic, inertial and optimistic scenarios of connection of search activity of Internet users and general morbidity coronavirus infection were developed and verified. Correlation relations between the intensity of search queries on the topic «distance learning» of relative frequencies of search queries on various communicative information technology platforms have been evaluated. It has been found that the distribution of Internet users' search queries on coronavirus theme has the character of a chain branching process, which testifies to the phenomenon of «infodemia COVID-19».

General Information

Keywords: forecasting, scenario analysis, distance learning, bioinspired algorithm, COVID-19

Journal rubric: Data Analysis

Article type: scientific article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17759/mda.2022120402

Received: 15.11.2022

Accepted:

For citation: Voronov M.V., Davydovsky A.G. Bioinspired Scenario Analysis of the Connection between the COVID-19 Epidemic and Distance Learning Technologies. Modelirovanie i analiz dannikh = Modelling and Data Analysis, 2022. Vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 25–35. DOI: 10.17759/mda.2022120402. (In Russ., аbstr. in Engl.)

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Information About the Authors

Mikhail V. Voronov, Doctor of Engineering, Professor, Head of the Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Information Technology, Moscow State University of Psychology & Education, Leading researcher at the Laboratory of Computer Textbooks, Faculty of Further Education, Moscow State University. Lomonosov, Moscow, Russia, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7839-6250, e-mail: mironovov@yandex.ru

Anatoly G. Davydovsky, PhD in Biology, Associate Professor of the Department, Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics (BSUIR), Minsk, Belarus, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1806-9674, e-mail: agd2011@list.ru

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