Expert assessment for the formation of stochastic matrices of aircrew behavior

The article presents a methodology for expert evaluation in the development of a mathematical simulation model of aircrew operations. The proposed approach enables the transformation of the target time vector representing sojourn times in the states of a Markov chain, thereby improving the accuracy of transition probability matrix optimization. The methodology accounts for the relative complexity and duration of each phase of the operational scenario, as defined in the flight operations manual.

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