Formation of a Confidence Absorbing Set in the Task of Wind Speed Prediction

The article researches the problem of determining the set of allowable forecast wind speed vectors measured before the departure of the aircraft at which the wind speed by the time of landing will be within allowable limits with a given probability. Deviations of the wind direction and modulus from the forecast ones are supposed to be random. The case when the destination airport has two runways located at an angle to each other is considered. The problem is reduced to the problem of determining the isoquant for the probability function of a special kind. A numerical algorithm for constructing an approximation of the isoquant is proposed. Numerical examples are given, showing the dependence of the required set shape on the task parameters.

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