Confidence in decision: modeling and experimental verification

The article is dedicated to the analysis of the process of performing sensory tasks by an observer. An overview of a model of decision making with the assessment of confidence in its correctness based on signal detection theory (SDT) is presented. The concept of the confidence of an ideal observer is introduced in the paradigm. For a real observer, an approach of measuring confidence with the use of the amount of heuristic evidence is justified. It is shown that the probability of correct, confident responses exceeds the probability of the correctness of all the confident and non-confident responses. In the experimental study of performing two types of threshold tasks on visual discrimination of spatial features of stimuli (size of circles) and time (duration of light signals), the prediction of the model was confirmed. This pilot diagnostic study has allowed to set forth the hypothesis that control over the accuracy of sensory decisions based on confidence-doubts feeling is higher among the reflective persons than among the impulsive ones.

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